Journal.

From the perspective of schedule reliability, when evaluating supply chains, analysing monthly variability is as important as the monthly performance alone. For instance, a trade lane achieving 95% reliability in a month becomes effectively useless for planning, if the reliability drops to 10% in the next month. Conversely, a trade lane consistently maintaining an 80% reliability level offers far superior predictability for planning. Figure 1 shows the most volatile trade lan

The latest growth projections by IMF in their July 2026 update to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, indicate a steep deceleration in global trade volume growth, dropping from 5.0% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026. This slowdown is heavily influenced by prior front‑loading of cargo by shippers, the dampening macroeconomic effect of global tariffs, and the ongoing logistical hurdles surrounding the geopolitically impacted regions. Furthermore, economies integrated into the artifi

Analysis of global liner network data since 2012 reveals a fundamental shift in how shipping lines manage their networks. Although shipping lines have largely maintained their geographical footprint, liner service frequencies have contracted significantly since the disruptions of 2020. Tracking the relationship between Network Reach (unique direct deep‑sea port‑pair connections) and Network Density (total volume of calls executed across those connections) demonstrates a histo

In issue 770 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the relationship between structural schedule buffering and early vessel arrivals. Shipping lines are increasingly relying on schedule buffers, which involve increasing transit times, to manage ongoing network disruptions. A direct byproduct of this operational strategy is an elevated volume of early vessel arrivals. These early arrivals introduce “negative delay” into the global average vessel delay metric, w

In issue 769 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the relationship between container spot rates and the share of Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC) container vessel capacity operated by non‑alliance container carriers. It is a widely held industry perception that high Asia-NAWC spot rates often result in an influx of smaller niche carriers, while low spot rates lead to their withdrawal from the market. The recent strong increases in spot rates imply that we

In issue 768 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed East/West container vessel deployment, revealing how Gemini Cooperation is executing a reallocation of their fleet. While headline figures show a broad loss of market share across major East/West trades, an 8‑week running average in Figure B1 shows a deliberate network strategy: Gemini is systematically sacrificing capacity market share on the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe (Asia-NEUR) lanes to fund an agg

In Issue 767 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed 2026‑Q1 container volumes at North American East Coast (NAEC) ports. NAEC Total Throughput declined ‑2.5% Y/Y, and NAEC Laden Imports declined ‑1.4% Y/Y. Despite this, the NAEC ports gained ground on the West Coast, lifting the region’s Laden Import share from 46.0% in 2025‑Q1 to 46.8% in 2026‑Q1, as West Coast ports saw a deeper ‑3.9% Y/Y contraction in Laden Imports. As illustrated in Figure 1, breaking down

Our analysis of the financial and volume performance of the shipping lines in Issue 766 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight shows that 2026‑Q1 presents a challenging financial landscape. Across the shipping lines that have so far reported on their financial figures (minus HMM who have not yet published their 2026‑Q1 EBIT, OOCL who do not publish quarterly EBIT, and CMA CGM, who have stopped publicly publishing EBIT), a combined EBIT of USD 1.35bn was recorded, substantia

In our analysis of service‑level schedule reliability (Issue 765 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight), we found that the global average masks a deeply fractured market. Instead of uniform operations across all trade lanes, some trade lanes are seeing a high percentage of highly stable services, while others are experiencing a rise in highly volatile services. This structural bifurcation can also be seen in the two primary Asia‑Europe trades. Asia‑Mediterranean represents

In the latest issue of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we examined the North America West Coast (NAWC) container volumes for 2026‑Q1. While overall NAWC laden import volumes contracted by ‑3.9% Y/Y, this decline was highly localised to US‑based ports. The data revealed a northward migration of volumes that heavily favours the Canadian ports of Prince Rupert and Vancouver. The Y/Y laden import growth rates are shown in Figure 1. In 2026‑Q1, Vancouver experienced a robus

In the latest issue of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we quantified and contrasted the structural impact of the Red Sea crisis and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. While it is easy to assume all geopolitical chokepoints impact global supply chains equally, the data reveals a stark contrast in how these two events have manifested operationally. At the global aggregate level, the Red Sea crisis created a measurable drag on global schedule reliability. Conversely, the Ho

In the latest issue of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the continuing impact of vessel delays on the operational availability of global container capacity. Based on the March 2026 Global Liner Performance data, it is evident that despite carrier efforts to improve schedule reliability, the market has not experienced a reversal to pre‑pandemic levels. Instead, global schedule reliability has settled into a lower range of 50‑65%, alongside an increase in the

In issue 761 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the share of capacity operated outside of major alliance structures on the Asia-North America West Coast trade lane. Sourced from Sea‑Intelligence’s Trade Capacity Outlook database, the data indicates that the share of non‑alliance capacity is rapidly diminishing on the Transpacific trade lane from Asia to North America West Coast (NAWC), dropping to levels not seen in a decade. Figure 1 shows the development

In issue 759 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight , we analysed the 2025‑Q4 financial and operational performance of the major global container shipping lines. The reporting shipping lines recorded a combined EBIT of USD 392M in 2025‑Q4, representing a staggering collapse from the USD 7.60bn combined operating profit recorded in 2024‑Q4. This signalled not only a return to severe pre‑pandemic margin pressures but also wiped out the recovery momentum that was built through

In issue 758 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the 2025‑FY financial and operational performance of the major global container shipping lines. The data indicates that the industry has achieved a soft landing rather than a catastrophic crash, with the reporting carriers recording a combined USD 15.4bn EBIT for 2025. While this represents a significant cooling from the USD 35.4bn operating profit seen in 2024 – and remains a fraction of the 2021‑2022 peaks –

In issue 757 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we evaluated the operational nature of the Asia-Europe trade following the December 2023 shift to the Cape of Good Hope routing. We found that carrier networks have not reached operational equilibrium, leaving the market increasingly bifurcated by distinct transit time strategies and performance disparities. Figure 1 illustrates this structural divergence across different Asia-Europe sub‑region corridors. The most signifi

In issue 756 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight , we highlighted a contraction in Gemini’s capacity market share across the Transpacific and Asia-North Europe trade lanes. The rolling 8‑week average weekly capacity market share, as shown in Figure 1, demonstrates a clear downward trajectory for Gemini. Between April 2025 and May 2026, Gemini’s share of Asia‑North America West Coast weekly deployed capacity is projected to contract from 15% to 13%. Concurrently, the Asia

In issue 755 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight , we conducted a network stress test of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz on February 28. The objective was to quantify the amount of deep-sea vessel capacity that was intended to leave the Persian Gulf, while not counting any local feeder vessels that were not planned to leave the Gulf. To calculate this potentially trapped capacity, we utilised carriers’ published schedules and applied it to two scenarios. Und

In issue 752 of the Sea‑Intelligence Sunday Spotlight , we analysed the new 2026 "Day 10" network product from Ocean Alliance. There are 318 unique port-port connections that are unchanged between the Day 9 and Day 10 products, 26 that are discontinued from Day 9, and 21 that have been newly introduced in Day 10. In terms of total connectivity, the new Day 10 product has 498 port‑port connections, 3 more connections than Day 9. When we look at the changes in port rotation and

In issue 751 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight , we analysed the 2024-2025 container throughput data for North America West Coast (NAWC) ports to assess any shifts in the timing of laden import peaks. The data indicates that front-loading of cargo seen earlier in 2025 came at the expense of Q4 volumes, which were defined by a significant contraction. Figure 1 illustrates this shift in seasonal volume distribution. In 2025, total laden imports peaked early in July at 1.