Sea-Intelligence (Aug 27th, 2025) – Expect more Golden Week blank sailings

In issue 729 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the current level of announced blank sailings for the upcoming 2025 Chinese Golden Week holiday period. On the Transpacific trade lanes, scheduled capacity reductions are currently below historical benchmarks, signalling a likely wave of last-minute blank sailings in the coming weeks.

Shipping lines historically use blank sailing programs to align vessel supply with the predictable dip in export demand, during the week-long Golden Week holiday. This year, these adjustments are set against a backdrop of softening demand and freight rate volatility, making capacity management a critical lever for market stability. However, with five weeks to go, announced blank sailings on the Transpacific are a fraction of what has been seen in recent years.

On the Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC) trade lane, the discrepancy is particularly stark. As shown in Figure 1, shipping lines have currently scheduled a capacity reduction of just 3.8% for the four-week Golden Week period. This is a fraction of the 15.4% of capacity removed in 2024 and is also lower than the pre-pandemic (2017-2019) average reduction of 9.3%. To match the level of blank sailings seen in 2024, the shipping lines would need to announce an additional 21 cancellations on the trade lane.

The Asia-North America East Coast (NAEC) trade lane shows a similar, though less extreme, trend. Currently, the planned capacity reduction of 4.8% falls well short of the 11.9% removed in 2024 and the pre-pandemic average of 11.4%. To align with historical reduction levels, an additional 7 sailings would need to be blanked.

Given the current market conditions and the recent tendency for shipping lines to announce capacity reductions closer to the date of departure during periods of market uncertainty, it is highly likely that more blank sailings will be announced for the 2025 Golden Week period. Shippers should anticipate these last-minute capacity reductions and plan accordingly.

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All quotes can be attributed to: Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.